20 October 2003

Annual Session of the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG)

Between 8-10 October, 2003 the 48th Annual Session of the ILZSG was held in Rome, Italy. The participants in the Session held their meetings in several work groups and committees:

• Statistics and Forecasting;
• New Mine and Smelter Projects;
• Economy and Environment;
• Industrial Advisory Panel.

The purpose of the meeting was to form, based on the delivered reports, a clearer and maximally trustworthy idea of the supply and demand of both zinc and lead, as well as of concentrates in 2003 and 2004.

The following parameters in the development of the two metals were outlined:

Lead

So far statistics indicate increased lead consumption. Specialists expect growth by 0.9% for 2003 and about 2.4% for 2004.

After a drop with about 1.3% in 2003, the world lead concentrate output is expected to increase in 2004 by about 2.8%. This growth is in fact the cumulative effect from a series of increases in Australia, China, India, Ireland, Mexico, and Peru.

The forecasts for lead production are not optimistic. Irrespectively of the recorded growth in some parts of the world, the general production of refined metal is expected to fall by about 1.4% until the end of 2003 and another 0.5% in 2004. This is the result of the production process stops in plants from Europe, the USA, and Australia. The forecast for output drop in 2004 is related to the closing down of Cockle Creek in Australia and the planned closing down of the Glover Plant in the USA.

If for 2003 the expected lead shortage globally is about 137 000 t., for 2004 the statistics indicate the figure of 334 000 t.

Zinc

At this year's session of the ILZSG an increase by about 1.7% of zinc consumption in 2003 was reported for and a forecast was made for about 3.5% growth in 2004. The prognosticated big growth of local refined metal consumption in China underlies this forecast.

The global zinc concentrate output also marks growth - about 3.7% for 2003 and forecasted 3.1% for 2004.

The reported data for refined zinc production indicate a tendency towards overcoming the drop from 2003 (0.6%) and increasing by 2.5% in 2004.

It is expected that the recorded drop resulting from the closed down plant capacities in France, Macedonia, Great Britain, and Italy will be partially compensated in 2004 by the zinc production growth in Belgium, Finland, Holland, and Spain. The execution of two significant projects - the Scorpion Refinery in Namibia (150 000 t./per year) and Balkhash in Kazakhstan (100 000 t.) will lead to the production of additional quantities of refined metal.

In contrast to lead, specialists in this branch expect by the end of 2003 overproduction of zinc metal to the amount of 96 000 t. Despite the actual chances of consumption growth in 2004, this surplus will hardly be overcome. Its level is expected to reach 24 000 t. next year.

Issues related to the new EU policy regarding chemical products regulation were also treated at the 48th Work Session of the Group. The views of specialists from the lead and zinc industries regarding the proposed changes for registration, evaluation and approval of a series of chemicals were also discussed.

Special interest attracted the subject of the present and future development of metals recycling, information exchange between the separate countries and the necessity of holding thematic conferences.

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